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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Oct 15 2018 11:19 am


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 150550
SWODY1
SPC AC 150549

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across the northern
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England this evening.

...Synopsis...
Amplified, positively tilted upper trough currently extending from
central CA northeastward into northwestern Ontario is expected to
devolve somewhat today as the northern portion remains progressive
while the southern portion evolves into a closed upper low.
Shortwave trough embedded within the northern portion of the upper
trough will move quickly eastward through the Upper Great Lakes and
into southern Quebec. Wind fields along the southern periphery of
this shortwave are expected to increase substantially throughout the
day, with 100+ kt 500-mb winds anticipated across the Northeast
states from the late afternoon until early Tuesday. 

At the surface, a strong cold front will continue southward off the
TX coast while northern portions of this front push through the
Northeast. Expansive high pressure will follow in the wake of the
front across much of the western and central CONUS.

...Northeast...
Strong cold front moving across the region will likely extend from
Lake Ontario southwestward across western NY and PA at 18Z. By 00Z,
this front is expected to extend from the NH/VT border southwestward
through the Hudson Valley and far eastern PA. Air mass ahead of this
front will be modifying quickly amidst strong moisture advection and
low 60s dewpoints will likely be in place from the Delmarva
Peninsula northeastward into eastern MA. Even so, instability will
be limited by relatively warm profiles and tempered diurnal heating.
Despite this limited instability, strong forcing along the front
will likely result in predominately shallow convection along the
front. There is some chance this convection is deep enough for
isolated lightning strikes in the 21Z to 03Z time frame for the
northern Mid-Atlantic states into southern New England. As such,
there is a risk for convectively aided downdrafts in narrow corridor
from the Delmarva Peninsula northeastward to Cape Cod. Gradient wind
fields will already be enhanced so any augmentation could result in
winds approaching severe thresholds. 

...Middle TX Coast...
The cold front will likely be moving into the region at the
beginning of the period. A narrow window appears to exists for an
isolated strong storm or two, particularly as a result of storm
mergers. Deep shear is not expected to be supportive of long-lived
updrafts and the primary severe threat is isolated damaging wind
gusts from water-loaded downdrafts. Severe coverage is expected to
be too low to merit any outlook areas.

..Mosier/Gleason.. 10/15/2018

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com