Information from NOAA Storm Prediction Center at this website

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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Aug 19 2018 2:37 am


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

522 
ACUS01 KWNS 190051
SWODY1
SPC AC 190050

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may continue to be accompanied by a risk for severe
wind and hail across parts of the Plains this evening.

...01Z Outlook Update...
East of the High Plains, thunderstorm activity appears generally in
the process of weakening in the presence of waning instability. 
Similar trends are expected with ongoing thunderstorm activity in
the vicinity of the northern Rockies, and near the Mogollon Rim of
Arizona into the mountains of New Mexico by around 03-04Z.

Across the south central High Plains, moderate boundary layer CAPE
may maintain convection now spreading southeast of the Raton Mesa
area, and activity near the Kansas/Colorado border area, through
this evening.  It  still appears possible that forcing for ascent
associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm advection could support
further convective development and upscale growth southeastward
across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity and adjacent portions
of New Mexico, southwestern Kansas and western Oklahoma.  Aided by
southerly nocturnal low-level jet strengthening up to 30-35 kts,
this could be accompanied a risk for at least localized severe wind
gusts and perhaps some hail into the overnight hours.

Near the surface trough across the central Dakotas into southern
Nebraska, scattered vigorous thunderstorm development is ongoing,
aided by a seasonably warm and fairly deeply mixed boundary layer
(temps still near 90, dew points in the lower/mid 60s) characterized
by moderately large CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg.  This
environment may remain conducive to the risk for locally strong to
severe convective gusts into the 03-04Z time frame.

..Kerr.. 08/19/2018

$$

        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com