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Forecast Discussion for Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 222351
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
551 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Radar imagery this afternoon shows bulk of rain has moved east of
our forecast area. However, models show redevelopment of showers
along a weak cold front that is currently crossing the Tennessee
River. Will show low pops through the evening to account for this
activity, mainly east of I-65. Otherwise, gusty south to southwest
winds up to 35 mph will continue into the early evening as an
area of low pressure moves through the Midwest.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the 30s to around 40 in the
wake of the cold front, but that actually seems warm compared to
the Arctic cold earlier this month. In fact, temperatures for the
rest of the forecast period looks to remain near to above normal
for this time of the year - a welcome change from the well below
normal conditions much of this month. Wraparound cloud cover will
affect the area Tuesday into Wednesday, keeping temperatures cool
with highs only in the 40s both days. A few isolated showers
look possible in the northern Plateau counties from Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening, and as temperatures cool late in
the day cannot rule out a snow shower mixing in. Nothing
significant and certainly no accumulations are anticipated
though.

Later in the week, a return to sunny skies and much warmer
temperatures are expected as a large H5 ridge builds over the
eastern CONUS. Highs will warm well into the 50s on Thursday and
likely the 60s by Friday, with no precipitation anticipated. By
Friday night into Saturday, global models begin to diverge with
our next system with the 12Z GFS around 24 hours faster and much
weaker than the slower and stronger ECMWF. Nevertheless, appears
a decent chance of rain is in store for Middle Tennessee over the
weekend as a large H5 trough swings by, so will show high chance
to likely pops in line with neighboring offices. Does not appear
to be enough cold air in the wake of this system for any
changeover or chance for wintry precip attm - and with the next
system not anticipated until late next week, snow lovers will
likely have to wait until at least February for any more wintry
stuff.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A storm system will move northeast across the Great Lakes during
the taf period. With an impressive post frontal pressure
gradient, look for northwesterly winds to remain elevated with
gusts at times. Otw, an upper level impulse will bring clouds
back to the area aft 12z. Furthermore, a few light rain/snow
showers may move across the northern Cumberland Plateau by Tues
evening. But for now, will leave precip out of the CSV taf as
measurable probabilities are on the low side for now.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......07
AVIATION DISCUSSION........21

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Nashville, TN (OHX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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