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Forecast Discussion for Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 252036
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
336 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Another hot afternoon is in progress across the Mid-State, with
3pm temperatures in the middle to upper 80s in areas west of the
Cumberland Plateau.

Satellite pics show that our cumulus field is decently healthy and
wouldn`t be too surprised to see a few isolated showers pop
before the day is through, in similar fashion to what we`re seeing
just north of Land Between the Lakes. So, may cobble out an area
over our western counties for the possibility of late-afternoon
isolated showers.

Our weather regime doesn`t change much over the next few days,
which means our daytime heat will likely continue. Therefore,
have kept our max temperatures pretty much the same for both
Tuesday and Wednesday. Also,expect patchy late-night and early-
morning fog to continue to be the rule through Wednesday, with
areas near rivers and lakes most subject to seeing fog during
those time periods.

Since ECMWF and GFS show a band of decent moisture nudging into
our northwestern counties on Wednesday afternoon, ahead of our
anticipated cold front, have gone ahead and thrown in a 20% pop
for that period for the Clarksville area. GFS suggests we might
see CAPEs exceed 1k j/kg and LI`s drop to -3 in that area during
the afternoon, as atmospheric moisture increases. However,any
thunderstorms that happen to develop Wednesday afternoon, should
quickly diminish during the evening, with loss of daytime heating.
With surface flow already northerly, ahead of the front, don`t
see much in the way of low level convergence to keep showers going
overnight. So, will leave Wednesday night dry for now.

Still looks like a series of dry days for the latter part of the
week and over next weekend, with a cool airmass settling in that
looks very similar to one we saw during the first week of
September. As a result, nighttime lows will drop into the 50s,
with some places likely to see late night temperatures chill into
the upper 40s over the weekend.

Although surface ridge moves to the East coast by Sunday
afternoon, expect little in the way of surface dew point recovery
through early next week. In fact, dew points are forecast to be
no higher than the lower and middle 50s through Monday. As a
result, we`ll keep a dry forecast running throughout the extended
periods.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...High pressure remains locked in over Middle
Tennessee today, with a relatively dry air mass in place and
little chance for precipitation for the foreseeable future.
Upcoming TAF`s will contain the usual radiation fog during the
overnight period. Otherwise, look for VFR wx and generally light
wind the next 24 hrs.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      66  91  66  91  66 /  10   0   0  10  10
Clarksville    64  89  64  89  62 /  10   0   0  20  10
Crossville     60  84  60  84  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
Columbia       63  88  63  88  65 /  10   0   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   63  87  63  87  65 /  10   0   0  10   0
Waverly        65  87  65  87  64 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........08

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Nashville, TN (OHX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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